Six Months Down, Forty-Two to Go
Where Trump Stands on Foreign Policy
Today is officially the end of one-eighth of the second Trump administration. To mark this semi-anniversary, I will look back on six foreign policy promises Trump made during his 2024 campaign, what foreign policy actions he has taken, and what the long-term implications of these actions may be.
1. Immigration
Probably the most important foreign policy issue for Trump as a candidate, his pledge to stop illegal border crossings and deport millions of undocumented immigrants has had mixed success. Due to fears of immediate arrest and expulsion, border crossings have shrunk to record lows. However, Trump’s deportation efforts have not reached his promised levels and have been deeply unpopular.
In theory, Trump’s domestic policy success of securing $170 billion for immigration enforcement will allow the administration to scale up deportation efforts. However, an amount this large, apparently without comprehensive oversight and planning, will open up vast avenues for the same “waste, fraud, and abuse” that Trump accuses his opponents of. Corruption scandals, combined with escalating reports of detention facility mistreatment, abuse, and death, will likely crater the administration’s weakening approval rating on immigration.
2. Tariffs and Trade
Trade is an issue in which Trump personally seems to hold an immense ideological stake, and he campaigned on a pledge to revolutionize American trade and diplomatic relations using tariffs. In the first six months, this pledge has been repeatedly foiled by what appears to be a sensitivity to negative market reactions. Each time markets have declined, Trump has postponed his plans, leading to the embarrassing Trump Always Chickens Out meme.
Trump’s backpedaling from economically self-destructive tariffs has successfully maintained the economy he inherited from Biden. However, it is unlikely stability will continue if Trump does impose tariffs (August 1st is Trump’s next self-declared deadline), and even the current economic uncertainty has the potential to slow growth.
Although the current stock market boom has constrained Trump’s protectionist desires, Trump-related economic shocks are not the only possible cause of economic downturn. If the stock market declines for reasons unrelated to protectionism (for example, the AI-driven tech stock bubble bursting) the market’s constraints on Trump’s behavior will reduce.
Given the historical record of protectionism exacerbating economic crises, any downturn or recession in the next three and a half years may worsen due to Trump’s unbound protectionist instincts.
3. The Middle East
Donald Trump promised his voters disparate and contradictory Middle East policies during the 2024 campaign. It is not surprising that some promises have been kept while others were discarded. Abandoning his pro-Palestinian voters, Trump not only continued support for Israel’s military campaign against Hamas, but also stopped Biden-era efforts to discourage Israeli strikes against civilian targets. Trump also angered Republican isolationists by launching strikes against Yemen and Iran, although he tentatively maintained their support by keeping those strikes limited.
Trump’s Middle East policy has become fundamentally linked to the goals of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has repeatedly followed Netanyahu’s lead, including last month’s military strikes against Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Foreign policy dictated by another actor is always risky, more so when these policies appear fundamentally linked to Netanyahu’s quest for political and legal survival.
Despite this lack of autonomy, Trump has, so far, managed to avoid conflict escalation, fulfilling his campaign promise of keeping America out of Middle Eastern wars. However, the risk of Trump being drawn into broader conflict by Israel is very real, and will remain so in the coming years.
4. Ukraine
Trump’s most ambitious campaign-trail foreign policy promise, to quickly and easily end the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has been wildly unsuccessful. Trump’s initial negotiation strategy, deference towards Vladimir Putin and antagonism towards Volodymyr Zelensky, enabled Putin to stonewall and confuse American cease-fire efforts. Putin has, after all, twenty-five years of experience manipulating and deceiving American presidents.
Trump, frustrated and angry, has recently resumed military support to Ukraine and promised tariffs and sanctions targeting Russia if peace negotiations do not move forward. However, he has delayed implementation of these punishments, likely minimizing economic shocks.
Given the grinding pace of Russia’s advance and the low likelihood of impending Russian economic or political collapse, it is now possible that the conflict will stay in stasis, except for increasing death tolls, for the remainder of Trump’s term in office. Ironically, Trump has found himself in a position similar to, but fundamentally weaker, than the Biden administration, providing weapons and ammunition to a now suspicious Ukraine, threatening Russia with relatively weak economic penalties, and ultimately unable to resolve the conflict.
5. NATO
Trump has traditionally portrayed himself as a NATO-skeptic, and during his campaigns regularly promised to pressure our allies into increasing their defense spending. After minimal success in his first term, the past six months have seen a significant step in that direction. Our NATO allies have collectively pledged to raise minimum defense spending from 2% to 5%, theoretically more than doubling the military resources available to the alliance. Trump, who in the past reportedly considered leaving NATO, has stated he now considers collective defense “fine.”
Ironically, Trump’s victory has the potential to pave the way for a permanent break between the U.S. and the rest of NATO. As our European allies increase their military capabilities, their need for the United States as a security guarantor will correspondingly decrease. Simultaneously, Trump’s broader actions have dramatically increased anti-American sentiment on the continent. Although Trump has successfully brow-beaten Europe into paying their share, in the process he has weakened our influence over these countries, which was, of course, the principal reason why we formed NATO decades ago.
6. China
Perhaps the only campaign promise Trump and his opponents shared was greater competition with China. Unfortunately, the first six months of Trump’s presidency have not offered a clear picture as to how his administration will halt or contain China’s rise.
It is obvious that Trump wants to weaken the economic interdependence between America and China. Trump initially threatened to impose over 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, but has repeatedly delayed implementing them. His current negotiations with China would, in theory, minimize short-term economic costs while gradually disentangling the two economies, but such an arrangement has proven elusive in the past.
Less obvious is Trump’s plan for preventing China from forcibly re-incorporating Taiwan into mainland China. Trump ostensibly supports Taiwan’s right to self-government, but has simultaneously threatened high tariffs and weakened diplomatic relations. If China believes Trump is sufficiently conflict-averse to look the other way, the island may soon be invaded.
Finally, Trump’s foreign aid cutbacks have inadvertently increased China’s global influence, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. These reductions, which just days ago were approved by Congress, essentially end U.S. soft power. African countries, dependent on foreign aid for survival, have already begun recalibrating towards China. Unfortunately, Trump’s decision will likely hand China tremendous opportunities in the next three and a half years.